Malaysia Best Performing Stocks in 2018

By Evelyn Yong | 31 January 2019

 

Price on
02-Jan 2018(RM)
Price on 31-Dec 2018(RM) Percentage changed
DUFU

0.78

2.06

164.10%

MERGE

0.34

0.885

160.29%

WATTA

0.32

0.795

148.44%

LEESK

0.35

0.85

142.86%

PANSAR

0.383

0.8

108.88%

PINEPAC

0.19

0.35

84.21%

PMBTECH

2.003

3.57

78.23%

SANBUMI

0.195

0.34

74.36%

SUPERMX

1.005

1.74

73.13%

IDEAL

0.675 1.09

61.48%

2018 was a turbulent year that experienced a lot of market changes. Now let’s see which the top 10 best-performing stocks in Malaysia are. The result is based on the initial price of 2018 annualize performance from ShareInvestor WebPro and stock warrant and convertible shares are not included.

The 10th – IDEAL (9687.MY)

The 2018 opening price of IDEAL was RM0.675 and rose to RM1.09 at the last trading day of 2018, total with 61.48% value appreciated in 2018. The business nature of IDEAL is developing properties at Penang area. The company had shown brilliant results in the 2nd and 3rd quarter results in the financial year of 2018. This good news had pushed their market price to a higher level.

The 9th – SUPERMX (7106.MY)

SUPERMX ranked at the 9th with 73.13% raised from RM1.005 to RM1.74. SUPERMX is a world-class latex glove conglomerate and leading among the international manufacturer. Their business activities are producing, distributing and marketing their high-quality medical gloves. In 2018, SUPERMX widely expanding contact lens business and get the license in Japan had contributed part of the share price rising as a good future prospect. SUPERMX had their uptrend throughout most of the time in 2018, however, there are few incidents causing their share price dropping. The biggest scandal, founder’s wife had been caught for insider trade and sentenced to imprisonment for 5 years and caused 2% drops in share price. Besides, a fire caught in a small plant had caused more than 20% drops in share price. Other than that, SUPERMX’s share price also slightly affected by the trade war and caused some drops in the middle and end of the year.

The 8th – SANBUMI (9113.MY)

With just 1.23% different, SANBUMI rank 1 place higher than SUPERMX. A total of 74.36% price appreciated from RM0.195 to RM0.34. SANBUMI is principally engaged in the business of investment holding. The principal activities of the subsidiaries are travel and tourism services, property development, general trading and other services. It was a hot counter in the 4th quarter in 2018, but the financial results were not performing well and causing the price fluctuated within gain and loss in 2018.

The 7th – PMBTECH (7172.MY)

Rising from RM2.003 to RM3.57, a total of 78.23% appreciation, PMBTECH has scored the 7th place among the highest price appreciated stock in 2018. PMBTECH is an established specialist in the designing, fabrication and installation of aluminium façade system for buildings. It is the largest aluminium smelter in South East Asia and the largest aluminium extruder in Malaysia. Few of the well-known successful projects are done by PMBTECH such as aluminium formwork system for KLIA, KLCC Skybridge, Bintulu Airport and UOA’s buildings, aluminium glazing works for Singapore’s Marina Bay Sand, Shanghai’s Plaza 66 and Hong Kong’s Chek Lap Kok Airport as well as aluminium scaffolding system for MRT Bukit Bintang, MAS-Airline, Pavillion, Sunway Velocity and Suria KLCC. There were experienced 2 up-trends in PMBTECH’s 2018 price chart, which are during the April and November period due to the announcement of high earnings by acquiring Leader Universal Aluminium Sdn Bhd, US Dollar appreciation, aluminium price rise and higher sales.

The 6th – PINEPAC (1902.MY)

84.21% of price appreciation gain by PINEPAC in 2018 from RM0.19 to RM0.35. PINEPAC’s main business activities is doing oil palm plantation and they have a total oil palm plantation area stands at approximately 3,723 hectares in Malaysia and 20,665 hectares of land for planting oil palm in District of Sintanf, West Kalimantan, Indonesia where around 170km away from Sarawak Kuching. PINAPAC had a thundering spike at the end of September due to the land sale to United Plantations. This land sale up to RM414 million has helped PINEPAC’s price spike up 286% in 2 days. The proceeds of selling 8,999 acres agriculture land in Perak will be used in bank loan repaid and the balance as financing and working capital.

The 5th – PANSAR (8419.MY)

PANSAR had experienced 108.88% of price appreciating in 2018. From RM0.383, has been doubled-up to RM0.80 before the market closed. PANSAR’s stock price was showing a strike-up line in the first quarter in 2018. PANSAR is engaged primarily in trading in hardware and building products. It has also become a major supplier and service provider of marine and industrial engineering products, construction and building materials and so on. PANSAR gain a high market expectation as the PE ratio for 2018 full year result is up to 30.

The 4th – LEESK (8079.MY)

LEESK had its uptrend since the starting of 2018 until August and gave 142.86% on the annual growth in 2018 from RM0.35 to RM0.85. It is a company doing mattress manufacturing which is one of the most extensive mattress manufacturers in South East Asia with one-stop production lines including natural latex foam, polyurethane foam and various spring productions. There are more than 50% of the producing are exported. Those countries involving include the United States, Australia, European countries, Singapore and China.

The 3rd – WATTA (7226.MY)

The opening price for WATTA in the first trading day of 2018 was RM0.32 and closed at RM0.795, showed a 148.44% appreciation. It is under industrial products and services industry and distributing automotive batteries and battery components in Malaysia. Besides, it also involves in the marketing and distribution of telecommunication equipment and its related products. WATTA has their long term cooperation with world-renowned brands such as Samsung, Sony, Microsoft, Huawei, Lenovo, Motorola, Xiaomi, Infinix and also local telecommunication giant YES.

The 2nd – MERGE (5006.MY)

MERGE has a 160.29% price gain in 2018 from the price RM0.34 to RM0.885. MERGE is a construction-based company listed on Bursa Malaysia Main Market since 17 November 1998. Their expertise in the construction is majorly in water treatment plants, sewage and sludge treatment plants, pipe laying and reservoirs construction, as well as refurbishment and maintenance. On 15 October 2018, MERGE received an unusual market activity (UMA) query from Bursa Malaysia regarding to the sharp rise in the share price and MERGE replied for the situation was due to few parties expressed interests in acquiring some stake in the company as well as to explore certain business opportunities.

The 1st – DUFU (7233.MY)

The hot technology stock, DUFU, from the 2018 opening price RM0.78 rose to RM2.06, showed a 164.10% gain and scores the highest percentage appreciation in 2018 among the Malaysia stocks. With the higher revenue grown, DUFU started the strike uptrend since the third quarter in 2018 and recorded its historic high at RM2.713 on 19 November. DUFU is a technology leader of micro precision components with running its business as an advanced one-stop manufacturing facility offering superior quality manufacturing, engineering capabilities and services. The second quarter result in 2018 shown their net profit rise by 72% compared to a year ago, due to higher demand of Hard Disk Drives components and favourable foreign exchange effect thanks to the strengthening of the US dollar.

Discounted Earnings Model

By Stella Goh – Market Data Analyst | 23 January 2019

We had covered the topic of the Discounted Cash Flow Model last time, today we will focus on the next valuation calculation method, Discounted Earnings Model.

Also known as Discounted Future Earnings, this model is to forecast the earnings value of a firm and firm’s estimated terminal value at a future date. Terminal value represents all future cash flows that will reflect the returns occurred in future which they are nearly impossible to forecast.

The future earnings and then will be used to discount it back to the present value by using the appropriate discount rate. The sum of the discounted future earnings will be equal to the estimated value of the firm. By using this model, investors must make sure that the earning of the company is always positive. If it is negative, this model cannot be applied.

Note: We can use Adjusted Earnings per Share or Historical Earnings per Share of the company based on investor’s perspective and determination.

Let us look at How to fill Up the Figures in ShareInvestor WebPro to get the intrinsic value for Nestlé Berhad by using Discounted Earnings Model as an example.

1.Earnings per Share (RM)

Earnings per Share (EPS) is a financial ratio that used to measure or indicate the profitability of a company. To get Earnings per share, the total earnings of a company available to common shareholders will divide by the total number of common shares outstanding. In other words, this is the amount of money each of the shares will receive if all of the profits distributed to the outstanding shares at the end of the year.

ShareInvestor WebPro does provide an automatic calculation of Earnings Per Share for you as shown as the picture below:

Based on the photo above, insert 2.75392 to the Earnings per Share column.

Note: You have to right-click the stock and choose financial, then you can found Earnings Per Share in the part of Per Share Data (Adjusted).

2. EPS Growth Rate (%)

For EPS Growth Rate, we can use the industry average EPS growth rate of the company in the model provided, or we can use the average EPS growth rate for the company based on selected years.

We will use Nestlé Berhad as an example this time; we will choose the industry EPS average growth rate which has been providing as shown below:-

3. Years Of Growth

A company CEO may project the years of growth and announce it to the investors during AGM ( Annual General Meeting). Sometimes, we also can saw some news from the newspaper regarding the years of growth for a particular company. The other ways are looking into the past industry growth cycle. If the industry cycle usually tends to continue to grow for 10 years, you can take this number as a reference.

Let us assume that the years of growth for Nestlé Berhad is 10 years.

Therefore, insert 10 years into years of growth column

4. Discount Rate (%)

As we have discussed in the previous Article of “Understanding Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF)to find intrinsic value”,  we know that Discount rate is the required rate of return for investors. The rate of return would be applied to the future earnings or cash flow to discount it back to the present value. It could be the risk-free rate of yields such as government treasury bonds or the expected rate of return.

We will use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as below to find the Discount rate for Nestlé Berhad based on its own risks level.

The formula of Capital Asset Pricing Model is as follow:-

Risk Free Rate (Rf) = 0.041

We will obtain the risk-free rate from 10 years of Malaysia Government Bond by Google it which is 4.10% equivalent to 0.041 as shown as the picture below:-Beta (β) = 0.40

Beta is a measure of stock’s volatility which will use to analyse how much returns will fluctuate about the overall market return. Beta equal to 1 indicates that the stock price moves together with the market. The beta of less than 1 means the stock is less volatile than the market. A beta which is greater than one means the stock price is more volatile than the market.

We will obtain the beta for Nestlé Berhad from the Factsheet of ShareInvestor WebPro which is 0.40 on 16Jan2019 as the picture below. The beta that I have selected is beta (500days). There is no right or wrong choosing beta (75days) or beta (500days).

Note: Select particular stock and select FactSheet, and you will found Beta (500days) at the vital statistic part.

Expected Market Return E(Rm) = 0.067

To find the expected market return of the stock, we can use the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

Compound Annual Growth Rate is a useful tool which uses to determine the annual growth rate of an investment which the values have fluctuated widely from one period to another.

The Formula of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) as follow:-

I will take 10 years of the stock to measure the expected market return from the Year 2009 to the Year 2019 for FBMKLCI.

Beginning Value for FBMKLCI in the Year 2009 = 878.30

Ending Value for FBMKLCI in the Year 2019 = 1673.08 (On 16 Jan 2019)

The period from the Year 2009 to the Year 2019 = 10 years

We calculate the CAGR after we have all the beginning value, ending value and number of years in the FBMKLCI. The expected market return that we have is 0.06657. After we got all the figures as above, we can use it to calculate Capital Asset Pricing Model to get the Discount Rate. The discount rate we will get is 5.14%. Therefore, I will round off and insert it as 5% into the Discount Rate column.

5. Terminal Growth Rate (%)

Terminal Growth Rate will be used to estimate the company’s growth beyond the projection period to calculate the terminal value of a company that will expand its future income beyond the initial few years’ projections.

Note: the terminal growth rate used must always be lower than the discount rate. There is no right or wrong to use Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

I will use Growth Rate of Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year 2019 which is 3% equivalent to 0.03.

After we have all the info, we can key into our ShareInvestor WebPro to get the intrinsic value of Nestlé Berhad. The intrinsic value for Nestlé Berhad is RM 169.37

Now we know that Nestlé Berhad has an intrinsic value of RM169.37. The current market value of Nestlé Berhad is RM147.30 (Based 16 January 2019). Based on the Discounted Earnings Model, it shows that Nestlé Berhad currently is in fair value due to the margin value of the stock is not much.

How do interest rates work?

By Evelyn Yong | 16 January 2019

The interest rate is a percentage charged as compensation on the cost of borrowing by a lender to a borrower. A central bank is responsible for formulating a country’s monetary policy and regulation. One of the ways is by controlling the benchmark of interest rate. They can adjust the interest rate to balance the economic status of the nation. But why a simple action on the rate adjusting can make a massive effect on the country economy and even the impact of US’s rate adjustment can swing the world?

US increased their interest rate several times in these few years in preparation for higher inflation, indicating the economy in fast recovery mode and worldwide investors turn their money to the US market to avoid missing the train.

How does the interest rates work?

When the economy is in recession, the central bank will lower the borrowing cost by reducing the interest rates. Hence, consumers are willing to make big purchases, such as houses and cars. For a businessman, this is perfect timing to borrow money in expanding their business and buying more equipment. Therefore, the output and productivity of an economy increased, and the stock market will also show a bullish sign as most industries will be expected to grow.

When the rate is deemed high, the cost of borrowing will become more expensive. Economist suggests that this is a time that the consumer spending will be moderate due to higher borrowing cost, so it is a way to slow down an overheated economy. But it will send a signal that the economy will start to normalise, translate to business will no longer growing exponentially in the foreseeable future. The investor will begin to pull back the money from the market and put it in a bond for a more stable return.

Economy takes place in a cycle. When the economy was in a downturn, economists suggested lowering the interest rate to stimulate a sluggish economy. The interest rate is a catalyst for the economy because it affects people’s decision whether to save more or spend more, which helps to achieve the overall economic situation. Therefore, economists pay a vital role at this moment; they need to observe the economy and identify the timing of raising interest rates.

However, an economic cycle cannot depend only the monetary policy; consumers behaviour is the core contributor to an economy. The subprime crisis is the exact example, the ratio of household debt to disposable personal income in the US rose from 77% in 1990 to 127% by the end of 2007. The situation has shown the market was overheated. Federal Reserve had raised the interest rate from 2.25% to 5.25% in the year 2004 to 2006. But, the situation has failed to calm down and then the bubble burst. In the Dot-com bubble in 2000, Hong Kong’s interest rate had declared up to 13.35% to entice an investor to stay invested in the economy. Sadly, the action deems too late and not enough to stop the crisis happened.

What will happen when the interest rate adjusted?

Capital Flows

When a country announced an adjustment on the interest rate, there is indeed a level of hot money flows occur. Hot money refers to the short-term capital which will flow to countries with higher interest rates. The higher the level of hot money within a state, the more severe the effect will suffer for the economy when hot money flows out. For example, companies and investors are more likely to park their capital into U.S. banks as the Federal Reserve engages in a series of interest rate hikes in 2018. When the foreign investment went out from Malaysia, our market will suffer a drop and value depreciated as low demand.

The value of a currency

An increase in interest rates may lead to a currency appreciation due the economy is on an upward path and Investor tends to invest in good economy. Hence, the currency will appreciate when the money outflow lesser than inflow in the country. However, currency appreciating is not that welcoming by export-domain country. When the currency increased, the exports become less competitive, and purchaser side will incur higher cost. Hence, the purchaser may try to change their supplier from another lower currency country to get cheaper cost.

Inflation rate.

An adjustment in interest rate can indirectly affect the inflation rate. As a higher interest rate can slow down economic spending growth to take some of the edges off of rising inflation. Vice versa, when the interest rates in a low period, more people tend to spend more and aggregate demand increased. Hence, causing the economy grows, follow with the increase of inflation.

Housing Industry

Adjustment in interest rates will have significant impact on property buying. Due to the house mortgage loan is a long term loan, a small increase in the interest rate can result in a substantial amount differing in total payment.

Conclusion

There is no specific answer whether it is good or bad in adjusting interest rate as there is no one size fits all. However, interest rate adjusting is still significant and is a MUST-do action to approach a normal economic cycle. Balancing is essential to achieve long-term sustainability. As a consumer, we need to control our spending in every phase; as an investor, we must adjust our portfolio in every period to maximise our profit and minimise our loss.

Understanding Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF) to Calculate Intrinsic Value

By Stella Goh – Market Data Analyst | 11 January 2019

Investing in the stock market could be much more accessible nowadays as there are many resources and useful tools that help investors making an investment decision. In ShareInvestor WebPro and ShareInvestor Station, there are three new developed models which are Gordon Growth Model, Discounted Cash Flow Model and Discounted Earnings Model. Among all these models, they could help investors to find the intrinsic value of the particular stock — many complicated calculations and formulas to find the intrinsic value. ShareInvestor WebPro has simplified the process. It allows users to plug in the relevant figures and it automatically calculates the valuation of the company.

Today, we will talk about the Discounted Cash Flow Model to helps an investor assess the viability of a project or investment by calculates the Total Free Cash Flow based on the projected growth rate and discounts back to the present value. If the company value derived through Discounted Cash Flow Model is higher than the current market price per share, the investor shall start to monitor this type of company.

This model requires a positive free cash flow to derive the intrinsic value of a stock. If the free cash flow of the capital is a negative figure, this model cannot be applied. Let us look at “How to fill up the figures in ShareInvestor WebPro to get the intrinsic value for Air Asia Berhad” by using Discounted Cash Flow Model as an example.

1. Free Cash Flow Per Share (RM)

Free cash flow = Operating Cash Flow (CFO) – Capital Expenditures
Free Cash flow is the actual cash that would be available to the company’s investors after accounting for reinvestment in non-current capital assets by the company. The Free Cash Flow can be derived from the income statement and balance sheet of the company. On the other side, free cash flow also can be calculated by using the following formulas:-

By looking through this formula, it may sound complicated but ShareInvestor WebPro do provide automatic calculated of Free Cash Flow for you as shown as the picture below:


Based on the photo above, insert 0.0227 to the free cash flow per share column.
Note: You need to right-click the stock and choose financial, then you can found the free cash flow per share in the part of Per Share Data (Historical).

2. Cash Flow Growth Rate (%)

For the cash flow growth rate, we can use the industry average growth rate of the company in the model provided or we also can use the average growth rate for the company based on selected years. There is no right or wrong on which to be used. For Air Asia Berhad, I will use the industry average growth rate which will be automatically calculated as shown as the photo below: –

3. Years of Growth

A company CEO may project the years of growth and announce it to the investor during AGM (Annual General Meeting).
The other ways to are looking at the past industry growth cycle. If the industry sector usually tends to continue to grow for 5 years, you can take that numbers as a reference.
Let us assume that the year of growth is 5 years. Therefore, insert 5 years into years of growth column.

4. Discount Rate (%)

The discount rate is the required rate of return for investors. If he/she perceives the investment relatively risky, he may want to put a higher discount rate. For the public companies, there’s an assumption that the business was to continue to operate for longer compared to smaller private companies which may have a shorter life span.

To find the Discount Rate, we will use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) formula as stated below.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for the assets. This model is also widely used for securities to generate the expected return for the stock. The risk-free rate in the CAPM will account for the time value of money.

The formula for Capital Asset Pricing Model is as follow:-

Risk Free Rate (Rf) = 0.041

We will obtain the risk-free rate from 10 years of Malaysia Government Bond by Google it which is 4.14% equivalent to 0.041 as shown as the picture below:-

Beta (β) = 1.112
Beta is used to measure volatility or systematic risk of a security. A beta of 1 indicates that the security price is moving together with the market. A beta of less than 1 means the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta which is greater than 1 indicates that the security’s price will be more volatile than the market.
For Beta of Air Asia Berhad, we will obtain it at the Factsheet from our ShareInvestor WebPro or ShareInvestor Station which is 1.112. I will choose the beta of (500days) which is 1.112 as common. There is no right or wrong choosing beta (75days) or beta (500days).


Note: Select particular stock and select FactSheet, and you will found Beta (500days) at the key statistic part.

Expected Market Return E(RM) = 0.066
We need to use Compound Annual Growth Rate to find the expected market return of the stock. Compound Annual Growth Rate is a useful tool which used to determine the annual growth rate on an investment which the values have fluctuated widely from one period to the next.
The formula for Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) as follow:-

I will take 10 years of the stock to measure the expected market return from the Year 2009 to the Year 2019 for FBMKLCI.
Beginning Value for FBMKLCI in the Year 2009 = 878.30.
Ending Value for FBMKLCI in the Year 2019 is 1674.12 (On 10 Jan 2019)
Period from the Year 2009 to the Year 2019 = 10 years.

After we have the beginning value, ending value and number of years based on particular years in the FBMKLCI into the CAGR formula, the expected market return we get is 0.066. After we got all the figures, we can calculate the Capital Asset Pricing Model to get the Discount Rate.The discount rate we get is 6.89%. Therefore, I will round off and insert it as 7% into the Discount Rate column.

5. Terminal Growth Rate (%)

Terminal Growth Rate will be used to estimate the company’s growth beyond the projection period and will be used to calculate the terminal value of a company which will be expanding its future income beyond the initial few years’ projections.
Note: the terminal growth rate must always lower than the discount rate.

We will use Growth Rate of The Country Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year 2019 which is 4.6% equivalent to 0.046.
After we have all the info, we can key into our ShareInvestor WebPro or ShareInvestor Station platform and select calculate to get the intrinsic value of Air Asia Berhad. The intrinsic value for Air Asia Berhad is RM 1.01.

Now we know that Air Asia Berhad has an intrinsic value of RM1.01. The current market value of Air Asia Berhad is RM2.95. (based on 10 January 2019). Therefore, it indicates that Air Asia Berhad currently is overvalued since the current market value is larger than the intrinsic value of the company.