中美贸易战之中国手上没王牌?

无可避免?

在特朗普对1300个,涉及高达600亿美元的进口商品后,不甘失落的中国也立即向美国进口商品征税的清单,涉及128个税项产品,根据不同类别商品实行额外征收15%到25%不等的关税,涉及金额高达30亿美元。

中美贸易战和保护主义拉开序幕,并且这紧绷的氛围持续僵持了一个月左右。这诡异的气氛也为全球股市都带来不确定因素,其中富时大马综合指数更是连续滑落两个星期。股友们因为世界最大的两个经济体之间的贸易战而不停的抛售手上的股票。

直到中国国家主席习近平近日在博鳌论坛提出开放市场、降低外国汽车进口关税等措施后,中美贸易战紧张的趋势才有看到缓和的迹象。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德周三在香港大学(University of Hong Kong)发表演讲时警告, 针锋相对的关税措施只会衍生全球的保护主义意识和破坏全球贸易的规则。

克里斯蒂娜•拉加德也强调, “多边贸易体系在过去的一代人时间里改变改变了我们的世界。但是,现在这套基于规则和共担责任的体系有被撕裂的危险。这将是不可原谅的集体政策失败。”

众所周知提高进口关税只会提高通货膨胀,只会提高通货膨胀。随着物价逐渐昂贵,人民的消费能力更加有限,影响贸易在提高生产率和推广新技术方面发挥关键作用以及全球复杂的供应链 。比例,亚洲的贸易供给已经形成产业链,中美贸易摩擦存在很多不确定性,可能会引起亚洲经济波动。因此没有人会从贸易战收益。这也就是拉加德呼吁各国“避免一切形式的贸易保护主义”的原因 。

把焦点看回我们马来西亚人的国土,所谓城门失火,殃及池鱼。马来西亚贸易总额比国内生产总值多五倍,也是净出口国。这意味着我国经济高度依赖贸易,因此容易受到全球贸易往来变化的影响,尤其是当牵涉到两大经济体,也就是美国和中国的时候,我国遭受波及更是在所难免。任何给中国带来负面影响的贸易行动都往往会衍生负面的后果。亚细安十个成员国与中国在区域内不只贸易往来频繁,投资流量也不少。这也势必会引发其他美国盟友的贸易报复。

中国手上没王牌?

中国国家主席习近平最近出席博鳌论坛表明,中国将扩大对外开放。除了创造更有吸引力的投资环境,中国也将完善保护知识产权制度。此外中国也承诺降低汽车和其他产品进口关税,主动扩大进口市场。中国重申将致力于推动经济全球化朝更开放和包容的方向发展,以及放宽外资进入中国金融市场的限制,为贸易和投资自由化, 便利化,维护多边贸易体制做出贡献。外界指中国国家主席习近平在博鳌亚洲论坛上,宣布的一系列市场开放措施是为了缓解两国近期的贸易摩擦以及受到美国贸易制裁的施压而释放的善意。

在笔者看来,习近平并非害怕美国,而是为了实现中共19大对外开放政策的承诺:坚持对外开放的基本国策,打开国门搞建设,推动形成全面开放新格局。中国开放的大门不会关闭,只会越开越大。秉持着共赢,共存的理念,来体现未来经济强国的风范,以及拒绝任何单边贸易的来往。

但却有中共媒体以及一些学者认为在中美贸易战中,中共只能打美债、石油人民币、黄金储备的牌。前美国大唐集团中国区首席经济学家谢作诗表示,其实中共手上没有什么”王牌”好跟美国较量所以才乖乖就范。

然而实际上, 中美贸易战中, “大豆”是中国最具杀伤力武器之一。因为中国是美国大豆的最大买家,一旦中国提高大豆关税,这将会减少美国大豆对外出口,也将会打击美国多州的农户。值得一提美国中期选举的将在今年11月举行,而他们(农户)都是美国总统特朗普的支持者。

美中贸易全国委员会副会长彭捷宁 说,“他们认识到,美国的大豆种植者多在特朗普总统部分核心政治选区,这不仅会影响中国从美国进口的最大进口品的整体贸易逆差,也可能对未来政府产生政治影响。” 如果中国真的以大豆来施行反制措施, 不止会影响特朗普选民的支持率,影响政权,甚至无法连任下届总统。特朗普是个成功的生意人,一般相信特朗普不会跟中国打这一牌,因为政治的现实会让他意识到最大的输家会是他本人。

在笔者看来, 美国并非想打贸易战,无非想避免对巨额的贸易逆差和侵犯知识产权的问题恶化下去。特朗普此举是为了确保自己有筹码好让中国能回到谈判桌, 终止几十年来一直采取不公平、非法的贸易手段,多次违反世界贸易组织的规定。

特朗普将是这数十年以来,第一位美国总统在这每个国际社会都知道的问题上都能勇敢地和骨气地表态。 有趣的是中美贸易之间的摩擦,不会让他们变成敌人,互相指责彼此的他们始终都会依旧保持友好,因为经济要成长,两个世界最大的经济体系必然会合作,这就是政治。

Written by Benjamin Lai | 17 April 2018

Why Investing in Stock Market is NOT considered Gambling?

Bull-and-Bear-GamblingInvesting in stock market is just like gambling.

Some people fear of investing by thinking that way. It will depend on the perception of how we feel about it. The problem arose when most of the people treated investing in the stock market like a casino, wish to win big, especially the novice investors should not assume this way.
So, what do you think about it? It was a myth that stock market equates to gambling which spread on the internet a few years ago. There are some similarities between investing and gambling which may confuse us.

Risk

Both investing and gambling involve risk. You need to put your capitals at risk to get returns from your investment or gambling. Both of the investors or gamblers should have their risk tolerance before they start to invest or gambling. They must know how much they are willing to lose. However, the risks that took by stock investors are much more on fundamental-based and calculated. The risk is manageable by using strategies of diversification across various types of assets. Just like what Warren Buffet said, “Do Not Put All Eggs in One Basket.” At the same time, gambling is as easy as flipping a coin. The players will either win or lose, with nothing in between.

Ownership And Information

Investors who purchase a share from common stock mean that they are acquiring the part ownership. More importantly, investors still can get a small fraction of profits that they have invested when the company is giving out dividend back to the investor. To get benefits from investment, investors must gauge the company and its profitability. The earnings from the business are ever changing; investors must analyse the company by using charts, fundamental analysis, news and some company’s metrics to estimate the future earnings of a company.
However in gambling, you do not have any ownership, and nothing useful information can be obtained that give you an edge on the gambling table.

Zero Sum Game

In investing, It was entirely different from gambling due to it can help the companies to generate more profits by increasing productivity and develop new products which may change people’s lives.
On the other side, gambling is a zero-sum game. There will be no values created because the money is transferred from a loser to the winner all the time. Therefore, investing helps to generate wealth for long-term for investors.

Time Horizons For Trading and Gambling

There was a significant difference exist between trading and gambling. Gambling is a probability event that you are either a loser or winner and there is no middle ground in between.
However, for investing, investors may receive dividends from the company when they have purchased shares from them. In the stock market, the price of your stock fluctuates from time to time so you may experience paper gain or loss. However, you may be still able to get dividends for each quarter as long as you hold the stocks. Investing on the valued stock will have a higher chance of rebound back or even going higher than initial buying price.

Valuation

In gambling, the value of the money does not grow even the bet size or pool of money increase; it stays the same.
On the other hand, the value of the stock will grow because the value of the company will increase whenever there is innovation created or new asset bought.

Social Acceptance

The differences between investing and gambling are how society will perceive them. Investing played a significant role in today’s economy; due to people invest in improving their life in future. Investors nowadays favour companies that will enhance people’s experience and contribute to social life security.
On the other hand, gambling brings negative connotations. Gaming business may help to stimulate the economy. However, it had adverse side effects like attracting illegal triad activity.

Conclusion

By the way, there are still a lot of people thinking to get rich quick in the stock market and confuse trading with gambling. Please remind that investing and gambling have some similarities, but they had few significant differences between each other. Gambling can be considered as a short-lived entertainment for fun while investing in stock is to improve future lives.

Written by Stella Goh | 23 March 2018.

5 Fundamental Ratios that widely used to check Company Financials Health

financial_services_011

Fundamental analysis is a method to analyse a business by getting more understanding of a company background business and their future direction. It will be including examining the annual reports and financial statements, using some of the simplified calculation to gauge the effectiveness of the company.

Let’s look at the five fundamentals ways below:

1. Current Ratio
The current ratio (also known as liquidity ratio) is a ratio which used to measure the ability of a company to pay off their debts and obligations (debts and account payables) by using its assets (cash, marketable securities, inventory, and account receivables). The current ratio divides current assets by its current liabilities to come up with a value which indicates the company’s ability to cover its debts and obligations.

For examples, a current ratio of 4 means the company has four times more current assets than current liabilities. Therefore, it indicates that the companies have more to than enough asset to pay off their debts without needing to sell off their long-term asset.

Which mean a company that has a current ratio of 1 or more should not face any liquidity problem. The higher it is, the better the company liquidity. However, the high current ratio may also suggest that the company is not using the current assets efficiently since extra cash can be used to reduce debts interests or reinvest in the business.

You may make a comparison of the current ratio with the companies in similar industries but not with different sector due to a different operating method in various business.

2. Price-to-Earnings Ratio

The price to earnings ratio is one of the most widely used. Also known as market prospect ratio which calculated as the market price of a stock’s share divided by earnings per share to find out the value of investors is willing to shell out for each dollar of a company’s earning. In other words, PE ratio helps investors to analyse how much the stocks worth based on current earnings.

This ratio is beneficial to evaluate what is the stock’s fair market value should be by predicting the future earnings per shares. High PE ratio indicates that the market participants are bullish on the stock and they have an expectation on the company to post their higher earnings growth going forward. However, high PE ratio may also a signal that the overvalued stock and a lower PE ratio suggests the vice versa. Besides, when a company does not have any earnings or is posting losses, the PE can be expressed as N/A, so it is possible to get a negative PE ratio.

The PE ratio may compare with its peers having parallel and must always relative to the company’s position in the life cycle and relative to its peers in the same industry and the market as a whole. For examples, new companies may have higher PE ratio if they have high growth of prospect since their current earnings are minimal but they spend more money to grow.

3. Price-to-Book Ratio

Price-to-Book Ratio (also known as a market-to-book ratio) is a ratio which used to compare the stock’s market price value to its book value. This ratio calculated by dividing the company’s current share price by its book value of equity. This ratio also gives some idea of whether you’re paying too much for what would be left if the company went bankrupt immediately.

Price-to-book ratio helps investors for reality check who are seeking for growth at reasonable price. A high PB ratio indicates that there will be a robust future expectation of earnings due to the perceived growth opportunities and some competitive advantages. It was due to the company has been earning a very high return on its assets. However, the high the PB ratio also indicates that the share price overvalued.

The intangible assets in Price-to-book ratio shall be excluded to avoid the calculation the price-to-book ratio to be misleading. Low PB ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. However, under certain circumstances of financial distress, bankruptcy or expected plunges in earnings power, a company’s P/B ratio can be dive below one due to the accounting principles do not recognise the brand value and other tangible assets.

4. Total Debt to Equity Ratio

The standard overall debt-to-equity ratio can be a more reliable indicator of the financial viability of a business since it includes all the short-term debts. This ratio can help a firm to plan for asset financing and to the extent whether shareholder’s equity able fulfil the obligations to the creditors in the event of loss from the business.

A financial healthy company’s leverage shall be higher when total debt to equity ratio is high due to the company must meet their principal and interest on its obligations. Therefore, the companies with high debt to equity ratios might look riskier due to their liabilities more than equity.

Some of the potential creditors may be reluctant to give financing to a company with high debts position. However, the magnitude of the debts should depend on the type of business. For examples, based on ordinary circumstances most of the bank’s debt to equity ratio will be considered risky, but due to their assets generated are very liquid, their ability to pay the debt will much better than the rest. For the second example, a utility sector company can afford a higher ratio than a manufacturer company due to utility company had more stable and consistent earnings.

5. Time Interest Earned Ratio

Time interest earned ratio (also known as interest coverage ratio), is a ratio which used to measure how much of the proportionate income can be used to cover the interest expenses in the future.

This ratio also can be considered as solvency ratio because it used to measure a firm’s ability to make for interest and debt payments. These payments are treated as fixed expenses because the interest payments set on a long-term basis. Therefore, if the company could not make payments, the company may go into bankruptcy or to ceased to operate.

The time interest ratio stated in numbers as opposed to a percentage. A ratio of 4 times indicates that the company has made enough income to pay for its total interest expenses over four times. Most of the creditors favour this type of company because of their ability to pay interest when it’s due.

Conclusion

To be advised that ratios measuring may indicate the effectiveness of the company management to deal with day to day operation but does not indicate the future stock price movement. You may be advised to use other information or strategies such as technical analysis or some qualitative metrics such as management quality.

Written by Stella Goh | 14 March 2018.

Kitchen versus Trading Philosophy

This few weeks I obsessed watching old TV show Kitchen Nightmares, where famous Chef Gordon Ramsay hits the road to help struggling restaurants all over the United States turn their luck around. Ramsay examines the problems each establishment faces, from unsanitary refrigerators to lazy or inexperienced staff, and searches for resolutions. With help from his team, Ramsay redecorates each eatery to give it a fresh new look and updates the menu as needed. Ramsay’s ultimate goal is to make the restaurants he visits popular and profitable, but it’s up to the restaurateurs to take his advice and turn their business nightmare into the American dream.

I observed in each episode; each restaurant had a different type of problems but all down to 3 similarity which is:

  1. The owner/s is in denial
  2. Losing support
  3. Lack of Principle/had swayed from the original principal

Why and how all this related to investment/trading?

  1. The owner is in denial

In the TV show from the start of each episode, the owner will keep saying to the Chef Gordon,”The food is perfect, I don’t agree with you that the food is terrible. The kitchen is clean and the food is not frozen and fresh waiting to serve. I had dedicated the job to him/her, so it is not my responsibility”. And the owner will get angry whenever his customers or staff is complaining and telling him the truth.

When Chef Gordon show the owner all the frozen package, the expired food, the cooked food had been put together with the raw food (which is a big no in kitchen rules; the cooked food will get contaminated easily) all inside the freezer which is most of the time not work correctly. The owner will either cry and blame the others or realise it is his responsibility because he owned the business.

When a trader is in denial, It means that he keeps denying by telling everyone including himself that he saw nothing is wrong, did nothing wrong and assumed that he had done everything correctly. So how he knows he is wrong? Just look at the trading account statement, and it never lies! If you keep losing money in the long run just like a restaurant business owner, you should start finding out what is the problem and fix it. If you still in denial, you will never be able to see the problem clearly, therefore finding the solution will be a mounting task to do.

  1. Losing Support

In the interview before Chef Gordon comes to help them, all the owners had the same/similar speech which is ”I don’t know why I lose in this business and I don’t know what to do next”. By the time Chef Gordon pointed out their mistakes, the owner realises all the error were apparent that they already should know it long before from the customers and people around him. The problem is the owner stop listening.

When you stop to listen, you stop getting valuable feedback from your staff, from your client and even from your own family. When you are in ignorance, people around you will stop communicating with you and the worst thing will follow is they stop supporting you.

As a trader, you may think why I need others people support? Whether you are fund manager or just a garbage collector; you will still need human support because we are only human. A trader at some point will need either emotionally or financially support from family, friends and even traders community itself. You need a mentor like Chef Gordon to guide you if you are a restaurant owner, same as you will need successful traders or fund managers to guide you along the way in your trading journey as well. You also will need support from investors when you become a successful fund manager. You can’t trade like George Soros if you don’t have investors to back you up. Please bear in mind that even George Soros makes his fortune by managing investors money first.

  1. Lack of Principle/had swayed from the original principal

In some episode, the owner had a good business before it goes downhill. It happens when the owner changes their business model like serving more type of foods, reduce costs by cutting headcount and cook using frozen food which needs lesser people to handle. All this practice is to improve profitability for the business but also jeopardise the quality of the service and the food. Eventually, the customer stops patronising the restaurant and business start to lose money. The owner had no longer follow their principle which providing good food and excellent service to customers which had become their pride when business is thriving. In the end, they lose their business and worst, their principal and pride.

A lot of traders will try to increase their profit by double the lot size every time they make some money without a proper plan, so they can quickly double the gains. They will also try to find brokers that offer cheap brokerage without checking their credibility. Instead of focusing on how to improve their trading skills and knowledge, they try to take a shortcut by concentrating on short-term gain. When you lose a principal, you will start to lose focus. Eventually, you begin to lose money.

Written by Jeff Kum | 27 February 2018.

A Right Trading Mindset to Profit in Stock Market

I had lunch with one of our member, Kent yesterday. His objective is to become a full-time trader so that he can spend more time taking care of his family. I am sharing my past failure experience as a full-time trader with him so that he won’t repeat the same scenario. I always like to share my failure with some traders with the hope that they can learn from my mistakes to speed up the learning journey and reach their trading goal sooner. One of the famous quote from Jack Ma when he was asked about the point of view in MBA courses, “Instead of learning from other people’s success, learn from their mistakes. Most of the people who fail will share a common trail (to fail) whereas success can be attributed to various kinds of reasons.”

We start a conversation about retail traders mindset. One of the most exciting topics that we have discussed is about trader’s objective in the stock market is to make a profit. But many of the trader’s mindset is not heading in the right direction. They are just looking for excitement and hope to be able to choose the right stock that can give them profit almost immediately. Most of the time, this kind of traders will end up losing more. It is because they had put their high expectation into the market and wish to hit one time like winning a jackpot, instead of listening to the market and trade accordingly. In this case, there is only one outcome; they will hit the one-time jackpot but holding a few losing stocks which the losses too massive to be covered by the winning amount. Since they are losing, why do they continue doing it?

Hitting the jackpot makes them feel excited, and the satisfaction of the winning enough to blind them from the real losing situation. You can call this group of traders, a gambler. When they hit the right stock, they are happy. But when they choose the wrong stock, they will change their strategy into investment mindset, which holds it for the long term and finds a million reasons from the web to support their thought that losing stocks is worth to invest or to collect dividends in the long run. Between this conversation, another famous quote by George Soros strikes into my mind, ” If investing is entertaining and if you are having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” So ask yourself, are you a gambler who is always looking for star stock pick or are you boring every day due to repeating same method trading routine?

If you are looking for one-hit wonder kind of excitement, trading is not for you. We believe real traders react to the market and we strive to achieve consistency in our trades. I assume that some traders will still try to convince themselves that they are not gambler after reading this. The numbers will never lie, look into your trading result, are you consistently making a profit every month? You know your answer.

Stock Market = Gold Mine, but do you know how to mine?

Written by Kelvin Yap, founder of Round & Surge

What is an Edge in The Market & Why it Should Not link it to Win : Loss Ratio

This posting is regarding my explanation of what is an edge in the market and why it should not link it to win : loss ratio. Where most traders thought high win rate more than 50% or by applying good risk-reward ratio, or by simplicity, as long as you make money, you have an edge.

You may have learned something from some guru or from some article which tells you what to do and give you the formula to follow, but you don’t understand why and how he designs the method. Then you might change the plan due to 1 or 2 losing trade and come with your formula and keep adjusting until you satisfy and make some money. But in the end, you still don’t know why you make money, and you thought you have an edge in the market because you make money.
Your next question is “I can apply good Risk:Reward ratio so I still can make money in the long run, so does it mean R:R also an edge?”. My answer is right R:R is not an edge. It just helps you to minimise the chance of losing money. You should not be applying R:R if you do not know what your advantage is.
For the better understanding of this situation, please look at 2 example below (sample only):

You observed that market would trend up most of the time after Christmas day. But you do not know how many times it will happen, and you don’t see how far it will go. So you will come out with an assumption report that we call it “hypothesis”. What you should do next is backtest and record it down. Once you have sure that your hypothesis is true and high probability to be correct then you shall have more information and some conclusion which part of it will be;

Sample 1: “Stock S will go up eight times out of 10 times after the Christmas day”. By your conclusion, you already can make money by applying 1:1 win : loss ratio on this stock.

Sample 2: “Stock A will likely go up triple from the opening market price before market close at evening (if stock A open at 1 dollar, it will go up to 3 dollars before day close). It happens 3 times out of 10 times after the backtest”. From this info, you may have 3 wins, and 7 loses, but you can apply 1 risk and 3 rewards for this time and still make money.
So you may not be able to apply right R:R on case 1 due to lack of some details, but you can use it on the second sample.

My conclusion is, so both info also considers as an edge regardless of win:loss ratio.

Written by Jeff Kum | 18 January 2018.

Why New Traders Choose Not To Understand Their Trading Strategy

Here is my thought, some seniors trader that I have met always emphasised that we need to do backtesting, to know what is the edge of our strategy. It is essential to see it, but when I read some of the posts about trading/investing in social media, most of the new trader posting their trades and a picture of their chart with fancy indicators and ask ‘what do you think?’, In my opinion, by posting your strategy on social media will not help them to pursue useful knowledge due to different traders had a different experience, different views and different approach. So my answer to them is I don’t know what it thinks and the market will not even bother what I think or what the others think of your strategy!

New traders always ask for confirmation (which I mean the group of young & new traders that already had some knowledge but still struggling), but I think they can get the confirmation info from the backtesting instead posting their one particular trade with the all-new fancy indicators. By backtesting their strategy, it will reveal whether their approach will work in the long run or not but more importantly, they will have to admit when they realised their plan is not going to make them money and by accepting the fact, they will rework on their strategy. This process will be tedious and annoying because it is a cycle, you had to do it again and again. Once you were able to find a stable and potentially profitable strategy, you will be facing more problem which I will have to explain in a lengthy essay, so you will have to rework your plan again, and the process is ongoing, it will never end.

New traders are not lazy, they are eager to learn but struggling. They choose not to understand it by themselves because they try to avoid the reality, reality that you had to disagree with yourself and to accept that you are wrong at some point and you need to change. The fact is that you will be more understanding of yourself and you are afraid of facing it. You don’t want to admit it, and you try to find someone else and hope they tell you what you want to hear.

The senior can only guide you to the path, but you had to walk thru it…..

Here are some additional point at below from pick from the book ‘Market Wizard’ as a support of my view:

1. Personal feelings and opinions are far less accurate than markets… – William O’Neil

2. Do you still talk to other traders about markets?
Not too much. Over the years, it has mostly cost me money. When I talk to other traders, I try to keep very conscious of the idea that I have to listen to myself. I try to take their information without getting overly influenced by their opinion. – Michael Marcus

3. I can always tell a rookie trader because he will ask me, “Are you short or long?” Whether I am long or short should have no bearing on his market opinion. Next, he will ask (assuming I have told him I am long), “Where are you long from?” Who cares where I am long from. That has no relevance to whether the market environment is bullish or bearish right now, or to the risk/reward balance of a long position at that moment. – Paul Tudor Jones

4.Do you use the opinions of other traders in making trading decisions, or do you operate completely solo?
I usually ignore advice from other traders, especially the ones who believe they are on to a “sure thing.” – Ed Seykota

If you want to read more content, I strongly suggest you to buy the book! You are welcome to comment below.

Written by Jeff Kum | 28 December 2017.

Investing Quotes 101

Here are some best investing quotes with a simple explanation:

  • “Don’t put all egg in one basket”

There’s a lot of good and bad company out there that you can invest so diversify your stock portfolio in order to diversify your risk.

  • “Be open-minded but investigate what is true”

You may listen to some tips given but you must do your own research as well before you start investing in that stock.

  • “Two things define your portfolio: Your patience when you are losing and your attitude when you are winning”

Most people failed because they quit learning and blame the market when they are losing, they also had a tendency to risk everything and thought nothing can be wrong when they are in winning streak.

  • “Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”

Nothing is guaranteed in future, so learn how to invest, make your own decision and diversify.

Target price for DRBHCOM (1619.MY)

The target price for DRBHCOM (1619.MY) is RM 2.13 and overweight rating are assigned.

This target price and rating are assigned by Analysts over the whole market and taking the mean price and mean rating.

The target price will be more reliable when a particular stock has more analysts to cover. In this case, there are 5 analysts are covering this counter.

According to the past 2 years of analysts’ performance, we can conclude that DRBHCOM share price performance used to hit the analysts’ target price.

What do you think??

This is Consensus Estimate in ShareInvestor Station.

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The target price for DRBHCOM (1619.MY) is RM 2.13 and overweight rating are assigned.This target price and rating are…

Posted by ShareInvestor Malaysia on Sunday, 19 November 2017

Site last updated August 19, 2019 @ 6:52 am